Dinâmica de modelos epidemiológicos

Abstract

In order to study mortality in London, in a revelation of the 17th century, scientist and demographer John Graunt through a rule of three and elaborate proportions comparing years in the “mortality counts ” was able to make several availabilities about the city of London, England, among the factors that were mentioned in the birth and death rates of men and women, in addition to the increase in the spread of certain diseases and risk factors for diseases, even in the 17th century Dutch Daniel Bernoulli proposed an epidemiological study from this interest in trying to understand the factors that lead to the spread of a disease, epidemiology emerged, a branch of medicine that studies the different factors that intervene in diffusion and Several mathematical models were developed, seeking to explain as different possibilities of the spread of a disease. In this work we will study important compartmental models for numerical modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we will propose a model with the inclusion of a vaccinated district, SEVIIRS, and the effect of vaccination on the containment of a disease. Furthermore, in our model, the possibility of reinfection by the pathogen was added, which was not considered in the SEII model, in addition to the effect of vaccination on the dynamics of the disease.