Mensurando os efeitos da reforma tributária sobre tributos indiretos na construção civil com base na tabela SINAPI

Abstract

The dissertation in question used the SINAPI Table as a reference for the year 2025 in the municipality of Fortaleza and extracted from it 30 unit prices for service execution. Of these, 15 were different services, and for each one, two execution methods were analyzed: one with a greater share of materials, inputs, or more industrialized products, and another with a greater presence of traditional materials and hourly-paid labor. In this context of tax changes, the analytical strategy to understand the impacts of this new dynamic consisted of carrying out a process of price deleveraging followed by releveraging. Thus, a simulation was conducted considering the transition of the tax reform projected between 2026 and 2033, in which the old taxes gradually decrease while the new VAT (CBS + IBS) progressively increases until 2033. In the simulation based on SINAPI Fortaleza, the Material-to-Labor Ratio (MLR) favored the industrialized examples in 13 out of 15 cases. Regarding total cost, execution methods with a greater share of materials, inputs, or more industrialized products were also cheaper to implement after the reform in 13 out of the 15 cases. Therefore, it was concluded that the reform has the potential to increase the cost of services performed by hourly-paid professionals while reducing the cost of materials, which favors the industrialization of the sector. In some cases, price variations after the completion of the reform exceeded 12%.