Efeitos do fenômeno El Niño sobre o desempenho do agronegócio brasileiro: uma análise a partir do índice IboAgro

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of El Niño characteristics on the economic and financial performance of Brazilian agribusiness from 1968 to 2024, through the construction and application of a specific sectoral index called IboAgro. The central objective is to evaluate, in an integrated way, how global climate shocks associated with El Niño and regional variations in specialization are related to the financial dynamics of the main agribusiness companies specific to the Brazilian stock exchange. To this end, the work proposes the calculation of IboAgro based on the IBOVESPA methodology, adapted to exclusively reflect the behavior of companies in the agricultural, livestock, and agro-industrial segments, with consistent inclusion and permanence criteria, ensuring greater stability and sectoral representativeness over time. The empirical approach adopts a quantitative econometric strategy, using models with errors consistent with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, as well as dynamic analytical arrangements that incorporate the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) as a measure of the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon and variations in average annual variations by Brazilian macro-region as channels of climate transmission. Furthermore, climatic asymmetries between El Niño and La Niña episodes are explored, as well as procedures for reducing multicollinearity through Principal Component Analysis. The results indicate that positive shocks associated with El Niño exert contemporaneous and persistent negative impacts on the performance of the IboAgro index, highlighting the sector's high climate sensitivity. Furthermore, a relevant asymmetry in climatic effects is observed, with more intense impacts during El Niño episodes compared to shocks of the opposite sign. Regional rainfall, especially in the Northeast and Southeast regions, reveals itself as a central channel for the transmission of these shocks, being associated with statistically significant reductions in the aggregate performance of Brazilian agribusiness. This evidence is consistent with national and international literature, which highlights the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to extreme climatic events and the intensification of hydrological variability. It is concluded that the IboAgro constitutes a consistent and adequate analytical instrument for monitoring the response of Brazilian agribusiness to climate shocks, offering relevant support for risk management, the formulation of public policies, and the strategic planning of companies in the face of the challenges posed by climate change.