Análise da evolução educacional na rede municipal de Fortaleza de 2007 a 2023

Abstract

Educational development is configured as a historical, social, and institutional process, directly influenced by structural and pedagogical transformations over time. This dissertation aims to analyze the evolution of educational performance in the municipal public school system of Fortaleza, through the application of exponential smoothing models to time series data from the Basic Education Assessment System (Saeb), in the subjects of Portuguese Language and Mathematics, for the period from 2007 to 2023. The study is based on the assumption that educational growth—understood as the positive variation in performance over time—constitutes a more sensitive and equitable metric for assessing education quality, especially in contexts marked by socioeconomic inequalities. The methodology employed uses exponential smoothing techniques to estimate the slope coefficients of standardized series, enabling the identification of growth patterns between the early and final years of elementary education, as well as asymmetries in the transitions between these stages. The results reveal a more consistent evolution in the early years, whereas the final years demonstrate greater instability and a slower growth rate, particularly in schools with higher organizational complexity. It is also noteworthy that the schools with the highest growth coefficients followed distinct trajectories compared to the rest of the network, possibly due to targeted pedagogical and managerial strategies. It is concluded that the use of exponential smoothing models in educational data represents a promising methodological approach for the continuous monitoring of learning quality, providing relevant support for the formulation of evidence-based public policies focused on equity and the sustained improvement of educational indicators.