O comportamento da taxa de juros no Brasil e seus efeitos no mercado de ações

Abstract

This study aims to test whether the Ibovespa index is influenced in the short and long term by changes in the basic interest rate, which is directly linked to the CDI Over rate. Thus, the analysis assessed how significant the changes in the interest rate, exchange rate (in the Real/Dollar parity), and Brazilian inflation, measured by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), need to be in order to have an influence on the Ibovespa index. The main findings confirm that the tested data are statistically significant at 10% significance levels and that they exhibit a long-term equilibrium trend among them. Furthermore, it was observed that changes in the interest rate negatively influence the Ibovespa index, both in the short and long term. In other words, the effect on the Ibovespa is always the opposite of the applied interest rate change.