O impacto na arrecadação do ICMS do estado do Ceará após a concessão do aeroporto de Fortaleza

Abstract

This dissertation addresses the promising scenario of air transport in Brazil and the importance of investments in the sector, which has undergone significant transformations in the way airport infrastructure is operated. Private companies began to play a leading role in the management and operation of most of the main Brazilian airports, previously under the responsibility of INFRAERO. Fortaleza Airport, which was granted to the private sector in an auction held in 2017, began to be effectively operated by the concessionaire in January 2018, gaining improvements in facilities and new flights. Taking into account the new reality of the airport complex in Ceará, the dissertation highlights the expectation of an increase in the flow of passengers and cargo, with the capacity to boost tourism, commerce and the generation of jobs and income in the region, thus being able to increase the consumption and strengthen state tax collection. In this context, the research aims to evaluate the impact of the Fortaleza Airport concession on ICMS collection in the State of Ceará, using two different methodologies. The first analysis, in a more comprehensive way, using multiple linear regression with panel data, investigated the impact of airport concessions in northeastern states. This allowed a broad assessment of the impact of airport concessions on ICMS collection. The second methodology focused specifically on the impact of the Fortaleza Airport concession on Ceará's ICMS, using the synthetic control method to compare collection performance with a control group. The data covers the period from 2000 to 2022. In the panel data model with fixed effects, a positive effect on tax revenue in the selected northeastern states was identified due to airport concessions. In turn, the synthetic control model indicated a change in the trend in Ceará's tax collection from 2022 onwards, that is, four years after the concession, pointing to a possible positive effect in the long term. Information on economic and fiscal benefits, such as that obtained, can be valuable to public policymakers when making decisions about airport concessions.