Análise econômica das novas regras de compensação de energia estabelecidas na lei 14.300 em sistemas de microgeração

Abstract

Normative Resolution 482/2012, published in 2012, aims to encourage the connection of small generation units using renewable sources in Brazil. In the following years, several factors favored the expansion of the category, mainly thanks to the photovoltaic solar source, which made distributed generation a very profitable investment. However, this raised several concerns, including the possible tariff imbalance caused by the established full compensation model. In January 2022, Law No. 14,300 was published, establishing the regulatory framework for microgeneration and distributed minigeneration, bringing important innovations, but also greater complexity and uncertainties to the sector. This work aims to evaluate, from the perspective of Group B consumers, the impact of this change on microgeneration projects. Thus, a residential consumer unit located in the state of Ceará was chosen. From the photovoltaic system design, a model was developed to determine the financial return, considering the compensation rules. In the analysis, the main variables considered were sources of revenue and costs, tariff rules, taxes, energy inflation, degradation of photovoltaic modules and the simultaneity factor. Feasibility was assessed using payback, NPV and MIRR techniques. The results show that investment in distributed microgeneration projects remains economically viable under the new law. After the adoption of the new compensation rule, the return on investment increased in a few months in the scenarios with local production, however, the units that use remote self-consumption will be heavily impacted.