Análise fracional do mercado externo do cacau

Abstract

It is very important to Brazil that cocoa bean exportation be subjected to minimal conditions of risk and uncertainness. Drastic and constant variations in income make it difficult to obtain exchange value required to maintain economic development. Government offices make efforts to increment cocoa competitiveness through quality improvement. In spite of this, there is a need to use new analysis techniques in specific fields (as comercialization), in order to increment exportation. In this sense, the objective of this thesis was to estimate quantitave variations of international trade by aplication of the market share analysis. In this respect, an analysis was made of the determining effects of variations 1n the volume of Brasilian cocoa exportations, from 1972 to 1973 and from 1980 to 1981. It was evident that the competition effect was highly, positive contributing to increment total exportations, despite dimension and distribution effects, being negative. Such increment made it possible to obtain net gain of aproximately 89 thousand tons. However, dimension and distribution negative effects did not allow Brazil to benefit the large expansion of the market during the period analysed. These findings allow us to make inferences related to the need of a revision in Brazilian cocoa exportation policy; suggesting the development of new researches which make it possible to allocate human, financial, and technical resources to improve fundamental aspects of cocoa o comercialization. In this way, it will be possible to resulve this problem by allowing a better participation in the international market.