A pandemia Covid-19 e as mudanças estruturais na arrecadação do ICMS dos principais CNAES do Estado do Ceará: uma análise para o período de 2011 a 2021

Abstract

In this dissertation, it is proposed to analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on ICMS revenue, in the state of Ceará. To fulfill this objective, initially, the main economic CNAES were analyzed, during the period 2011-2021. In order to verify if there were structural breaks from a statistical point of view, during the period, and if there were changes in the collection, during the pandemic, which caused these breaks, the Bai and Perron structural break test was used. The test made it possible to identify that most CNAES suffered this break in the pandemic period, but recovered quickly. In addition to the descriptive analysis, the tax revenue of the main economic segments of the state during the period 2018-2021 was analyzed. We could see that the revenue recovery occurred, mainly due to reductions in social restrictions and, at the end of the lockdown, to emergency aid from the State and Federal governments, to extraordinary transfers, according to MP 938/2020, - Complementary Law No., to the growing e-commerce market. It was also found that Vaccination against COVID-19 had no influence on the recovery of the economy in 2020, as it was started only in the following year. Finally, it is observed that the experience acquired with the pandemic combined with vaccination allowed the state not to suffer significant structural breaks in the year 2021 with the second wave of the pandemic.