Rentabilidade da produção de acerola orgânica sob condição determinística e de risco

Abstract

Organic agriculture has largely been increasing in recent decades, and it became present in the producing agenda of various countries, presenting high growth rates over the last years. The organic acerola is grown in Coastal Irrigation District Board of Piauí – DITALPI where there are three cooperatives working in order to increase the production and generate employment and income. The name of the cooperative that we analyzed in this study is Cooperativa Biofruta, formed by 26 producers, which only 23 of them were analyzed. The quesion in analysis consists in determine if the production of organic acerola is economically feasible and low-risk. So, specifically, we seek to characterize the producers of the Cooperativa BIOFRUTA, calculate and analyze the economic feasibility of production of acerola producers of this cooperaative, under deterministic condition, and, estimate and analyse, under risk conditions, some economic indicators to the producers of the Cooperativa BIOFRUTA. To achieve these objectives, were used primary data, referred to the production growth in 2011, as well as the secondary data. The results showed that the majority of the producers were between 30 and 50 years old, with a level of education considered excellent, large experience in the area of organic products and irrigation, used the micro aspersion system and were satisfied with the cooperative. The deterministic assessment presented low values for gross margin, net margin and average net revenue, concluding that it happens because there are producers in very different situations, with significant dispersion of production conditions. That is why it was decided to divide the producers in three scenarios, where in the first one were put all the producers, the second one only those who had negative net margin and the third scenario with the ones who had positive net margin. Deterministically analyzing the scenarios it was concluded that the producers of the 1st scenario had no injury, but did not have a good return, as the producers of the 2nd had injury, while the 3rd scenario, presented positive profits and a more comfortable situation compared to the other scenarios. In the risk assessment, it was found that the producers of the 1st scenario were subject to high risk in production, that the producers in the 2nd scenario have 100% risk to continue producing and, as the market price is given, these producers need to improve their productivity to get out of this situation, since they can not influence the price. The best results were given by the 3rd scenario producers, that proved be quite profitable and low risk.