Vulnerabilidade aos eventos de inundação costeira na Praia do Japão, Aquiraz, litoral leste do Ceará

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in frequency of occurrence and intensity of extreme phenomena; for example the ocean overtopping due to storm conditions associated with storm surge, causing disturbances in coastal systems, mainly sandy areas, whose resiliency is already, in many cases, damaged. Japao's beach, located on the east coast of the state of Ceara, is a region with a high tourism content and because of that it is a coastal zone that is subject to risks associated with climate change and the consequent sea level rise. Even environments such as post-beach and dune fields gradually migrate inland, more internalized and stable regions, will be any closer to the shoreline and thus more vulnerable to the impacts of extreme events. In this context, this work aims to identify the flood risk from sea level rises forecast in sandy beach in the northeastern Brazilian coast. Prediction of the shoreline retreat and loss of land is a critical issue for the planning of coastal management strategies. The method consisted in establishing a sampling grid with the completion of 11 transverse topographic profiles to the shoreline with equidistance of 10 m, comprising the field of frontal dunes and the beach face. The hypothesis was simulated using models generated by surfer program. Based on oceanographic, meteorological and topographic data, it can be affirmed the fragility of Japan's beach for flooding events. It can be concluded that it is extremely important for coastal planning analysis and studies and the potential vulnerability of coastal regions to the hypothesis of a rise in sea level over the long term.