Viabilidade logística e econômica da distribuição secundária de gás natural: uma abordagem metodológica

Abstract

This work proposes a methodology for feasibility study of the distribution of natural gas to remote areas without access through a backbone pipeline. In recent years, one can observe a strong increase in the participation of natural gas as input in energy supply all around the world, including Brazil. The State of Ceará, in the Northeastern Brazil, shows nowadays a natural gas supply superavit of about four million cubic meters per day. Present natural gas distribution in Ceará State occurs only in Fortaleza Metropolitan area. Although there are in the State many important urban development poles with significant potential to consume natural gas they cannot count yet with necessary supply equipments of that power input as gas pipeline. This is an important problem because wood fuel is largely used in the countryside notwithstanding its damage to the environment. All over the world the attendance of secondary markets with natural gas has been supported by trucks or trains lines as a first step before implementing a pipeline. This work aims to propose and apply a methodology to find the economic and logistics feasibility to distribute natural gas to remote regions. Such a methodology makes use of discrete choice demand forecasting technique using both revealed and stated preference data as well as the capacity facility location problem modelling and conventional indicators of economic feasibility. A case study is discussed involving the CRAJUBAR region of Ceará State. The work aims to contribute in identification of scenarios in which one can have feasible situations of energy input substitution.