Investimentos educacionais e arrecadação tributária por bairro em Fortaleza, análise para o período de 2015-2022

Abstract

This study examines the effects of place-based public investments in educational infrastructure, namely Early Childhood Education Centers and Full-Time Schools, on neighborhood-level tax revenues from the services tax and the tourism-related value-added tax in Fortaleza from 2015 to 2022. The empirical strategy combines an event-study difference-in-differences design with matching on pre-treatment outcome trajectories, building an explicit counterfactual for each treated neighborhood and recovering dynamic effects around investment implementation. The main results show a large and short-lived response for the services tax, with sizable increases at the implementation quarter and in the subsequent quarter, and additional evidence up to roughly one year depending on specification. Robustness checks re-estimate the design under progressively stricter matching vectors that incorporate 2010 Census covariates capturing socioeconomic gradients and urban pressure, confirming the stability of the services-tax dynamics. For the tourism-related value-added tax, the evidence is markedly weaker, with no clearly persistent post-implementation path and higher sensitivity to specification. The findings suggest that localized urban investments can generate short-run fiscal externalities in territorially anchored service tax bases, while effects on more aggregated tax bases appear limited and less tightly linked to the immediate neighborhood environment.