Desigualdade de renda e crescimento econômico no Nordeste Brasileiro: um estudo quantitativo (2012-2023)

Abstract

This dissertation evaluates the relationship between income distribution inequality and economic development in the states of Northeast Brazil from 2012 to 2023. To estimate the model and test the applicability of the Kuznets relationship in the region, as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on income concentration, explanatory variables widely used in the empirical literature are examined. The methodology employed for estimating the proposed model is panel data analysis. The data used in the research were obtained from the Continuous PNAD and the IBGE’s National Accounts System (SNC), and the estimates were carried out using linear regressors through the FGLS method. The empirical results confirm the existence of a Kuznets relationship between growth and inequality in the Northeast region during the period, and that, by 2023, all states were already on the downward-sloping segment of the curve. They also indicate a strong influence of income transfer programs, such as Emergency Aid, in reducing inequality in the region, an effect that was significantly amplified during the pandemic period. Additionally, a positive relationship was found between the average retirement benefit value and the illiteracy rate and the level of inequality, suggesting that increases in this indicator do not necessarily translate into gains in distributive equity. It is expected that the results will provide empirical evidence to support public policies aimed at economic development while ensuring greater social equity in the region.