Uma nota sobre os impactos das transferências governamentais na geração de empregos

Abstract

We study the short- and long-term relationships between government income transfers and the stock of formal jobs in the state of Ceará. Using monthly data from January 2021 to June 2025, a vector error correction model with an exogenous variable (VECX) is estimated, which uses local economic activity measured by the IBCR-CE index as an instrument. The results of the vector cointegration suggest the existence of a long-term relationship between the reduction in the supply of formal labor and the increase in federal transfers – Bolsa Família and Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) – as well as aggregate state transfers. In the short term, the cumulative impulse-response functions indicate that a positive shock of R$ 1 billion in Bolsa Família transfers is associated, on average, with a reduction in the supply of approximately 44,000 formal jobs over a 12-month horizon. During the period analyzed, approximately 63,000 formal jobs are generated annually in Ceará, while the programs studied jointly injected more than R$ 15 billion per year into the state economy. The results should be interpreted as dynamic associations conditional on the specification of the model.