Análise da evolução do E-commerce em relação às operações destinadas a consumidores finais no Estado do Ceará durante o período de 2018 a 2023

Abstract

This study analyzes the growth of interstate e-commerce operations directed to final consumers in the state of Ceará, Brazil. In recent years, e-commerce has gained a central role in commercial transactions, significantly expanding cross-state operations and influencing regional consumption dynamics. Using fiscal data from the NFeCorp (NF-e) database for the period from 2018 to 2023, the research evaluates the evolution in volume and structural characteristics of these transactions. A OLS econometric model is applied to identify growth patterns, incorporating variables such as CFOP (Fiscal Code of Operations and Services), NCM (Mercosur Common Nomenclature), and CRT (Tax Regime Code). The inclusion of dummy variables enables a more detailed analysis, particularly regarding operations involving Simples Nacional taxpayers, who are exempt from ICMS DIFAL. The findings highlight a consistent increase in interstate e-commerce activity in Ceará, with an intensified trend starting in 2020. The results also provide meaningful insights for understanding the transformation of digital commerce in the state and support the formulation of public policies to address logistical and tax challenges associated with this new reality. Ultimately, the study underscores the strategic role of e-commerce in Ceará’s economy and the importance of fostering its sustainable growth.