Análise de correlação entre as emissões de gases CO2, o PIB agrícola e a produção de milho do Ceará no período de 1990 a 2022

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays an essential role in Ceará's economy, representing a significant share of the state's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and being one of the main contributors to employment and income generation, especially in rural areas. However, its development is directly linked to climatic conditions. This study statistically analyzes the interaction between the growth of Ceará’s agricultural sector and CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emissions from 1990 to 2022, using data on the state's Agricultural GDP and corn production. The objective is to understand how the modernization of agricultural practices, which drove the increase in gas emissions, impacted Ceará’s rural economy. The study utilized economic data available on the Ipeadata website, while data on CO₂ emissions were obtained from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG) platform. For statistical analysis, correlation coefficient, mean, coefficient of variation, and standard deviation were applied. The study results indicate that the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation values for the Agricultural GDP and corn production variables show considerable fluctuation over the years, whereas gas emissions do not exhibit extreme variation. Regarding the correlation coefficient, there is a strong positive correlation between gas emissions and Agricultural GDP, meaning that as one variable increases, the other increases significantly. However, for the corn production variable, although a positive linear correlation exists, it is considered irrelevant.