Serviço da dívida pública e investimentos nas capitais brasileiras: uma análise em painel no período 2018-2022

Abstract

Given the challenge of fiscal sustainability for Brazilian municipalities, especially in the face of increasing financial commitments and growing demands for structural investments, this study investigates the relationship between public debt service and municipal investment capacity. A panel dataset covering a five-year period (2018-2022) for the 26 Brazilian capitals was analyzed. Using an econometric approach with panel data, models with both linear and log-linear specifications were estimated to assess the effects of rising financing costs on public sector investments. The results indicate that debt service has a significant negative impact on the investment capacity of the capitals, both in absolute terms and in terms of investment growth. Additionally, the high operating costs of the local public sector increase fiscal rigidity, further limiting the ability to allocate resources to structural projects. These findings highlight the need for public policies that prioritize fiscal sustainability, ensuring that debt service obligations do not hinder productive investments and that budgetary management contributes to reducing regional inequalities.