Condicionantes do desmatamento na Amazônia Legal Brasileira

Abstract

Deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon is a concern on a national and global scale, due to its serious environmental and climatic consequences, influenced by a complex interaction of factors that include forestry, agricultural, livestock activities, infrastructure, and population and economic growth. This study aims to analyze the determinants of deforestation at the municipal level in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, which covers the years 2015-2016-2017 and 2019-20202021. From a database with 719 observations and 12 relevant variables. Thus, the factor analysis summarized the variables into three main factors: Agricultural Factor, Livestock Factor and Territorial Factor, which demonstrated a significant correlation with the conversion of ecosystems in the region. The results reveal a variation in deforestation propensity indexes over the periods studied, with a significant increase in the transformed deforestation propensity index (IPDT) between 2015-2016-2017 and 2019-2020-2021. The classification of municipalities into deforestation propensity groups, such as "very high", "high", "medium" and "low", highlights the persistence of deforestation patterns in specific areas, especially in the states of Mato Grosso and Pará. Variables that most influence the propensity for deforestation include the Planted Area, Harvested Area and Value of credit directed to investment in the Livestock sector. Furthermore, the study identifies a series of interrelated factors that also play a significant role, such as Production Value, Cattle Herd, Municipal Area and the different lines of credit directed to the agricultural and livestock sector. Highlighting the importance of agricultural and livestock activities and territorial characteristics in the dynamics of deforestation.