Uma análise empírica do modelo de concessões das ferrovias brasileiras

Abstract

This paper analyzes the results obtained with the model of concessions adopted in the Brazilian railways. To do so, it aims specifically: to analyze the evolution of cargo movement in the sector; note the growth of investments; verify the generation of jobs; and to develop a time series model that best explains the dynamics of cargo movement by the rail mode, according to the Box-Jenkins methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis for achieving the aforementioned objectives is based on bibliographical surveys related to the theme and statistical databases corresponding to the period 2006 to 2017, provided by the National Transport Confederation (CNT), and by the National Agency of Land Transport (ANTT). The results confirmed that the concessionaires have been revitalizing the railway system and that in all the evaluated criteria the answers were positive. Finally, the time series model that best explains the dynamics of the movement of loads by railroads according to the Box and Jenkins methodology was SARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1).