A dinâmica dos efeitos fiscais e de investimento nos ciclos de crescimento econômico do Estado do Ceará

Abstract

The relationship between public debt, investment and economic growth is a complex and controversial topic. This relationship has been the subject of constant debate among economists. In this dissertation, we seek to understand the relationship, over time, between the economic growth of the State of Ceará, measured by the ICBR-CE, and fiscal variables such as debt, primary result and investments, as well as monetary and credit instruments. The data were extracted from the Central Bank of Brazil and the Ceará Transparente website. The methodology was the time-frequency domain analysis, which allowed us to analyze the relationship of the variables over time with the frequency of their cycles. We chose the wavelet tool for its flexibility and ability to deal with complex series, such as financial, monetary and fiscal series. By means of multiple wavelet coherences, we evaluated the joint influence of these variables; On the other hand, the wavelet partial coherences allowed us to model the extent to which growth and explanatory variables correlate over time for different frequencies. The results revealed that there are punctual influences, especially in the medium term, that explain the growth of economic activity in the State of Ceará. These findings suggest a complex dynamic and possible causal interactions between the economic variables studied, with investment cycles and primary surpluses in positive co-movements with the cycles of economic activity in the state of Ceará, highlighting the importance of time series analysis in the financial and macroeconomic context.