Uma proposta de avaliação dos investimentos públicos: um estudo de caso para Prefeitura Municipal de Caucaia

Abstract

The study proposes an evaluation tool for public investments and applies it in a case study for the municipality of Caucaia, Ceará, Brazil. The technique is based on the estimation of reaction functions that capture the responses of government revenue levels, business generation, employment stock, and public debt service to the expenses on investments made. The exercise is conducted with data in a bimonthly time series between January 2018 and December 2022. The estimates allow inferring that i) the investments made prove to be ineffective in increasing revenue, the quantity of businesses, and jobs in the horizon of up to 4 months ahead, but also do not significantly impact the public debt service; ii) past economic growth and, consequently, greater financial autonomy, measured by local revenue, emerge as determining factors for the economic growth of the municipality, both in terms of the number of businesses and the jobs generated.