Análise da validade nacional e regional da lei de Okun: investigação do Brasil e de três regiões metropolitanas do Nordeste

Abstract

The literature that investigates the relationship between unemployment and GDP has sought to verify more disaggregated territorial units of a national economy, that is, in a regional analysis, to understand how regional dynamics have effects on the national economy as a whole and between the analyzed regions themselves. The main objective of this research is to investigate the validity of Okun's law for Brazil and for three metropolitan regions of the Northeast: Fortaleza (CE), Salvador (BA) and Recife (PE). The research used data from the actual product indicator provided by the Central Bank (Bacen), the Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) and its version at the state level (Regional Economic Activity Index - IBCR). Data about unemployment were obtained from the Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED), published by Dieese/Seade, and the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This research used the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering method to obtain potential unemployment and output values, and the analysis were based on the quarterly periodicity of the data. It was verified that the Okun’s law is valid in Brazil and in one of the three metropolitan regions studied - Salvador (BA). In addition, bibliographic research allowed drawing possible explanations for the variations in the labor market response to product fluctuations.