Causalidade no preço do tomate no estado do Ceará

Abstract

Tomato (Lycopersicum esculentum Mill.) is a vegetable of great socioeconomic importance for Brazil and, in the Northeast, it is a crop exploited mainly by small farmers, guaranteeing jobs and improvements in rural life. Ceará has become the second largest producer in the region, second only to Bahia, thanks to the investments, mainly technological, provided in the state for agricultural production. Addressing this discussion, this study focused on this fruit, due to its economic importance, and to recognize the ability of a market to influence or suffer interference from another, providing better agricultural planning and increasing the economic efficiency of the activity. For this, monthly price data were collected from the commercialization of Longa Vida tomato and Cajá tomato in Ibiabapa/CE and Fortaleza/CE, in the period from January 2011 to December 2022, in order to evaluate the causality of prices according to Granger, the stationarity by means of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test, which tests the null hypothesis of the presence of unit root, and the evolution of tomato marketing prices in the State of Ceara, through statistical tools, aiming to analyze the behavior of the prices of tomatoes Longa Vida and Cajá. As sources of information, the historical volumes traded and their respective prices were used, both made available by Ceasa-CE, and based on this information, the verified values were deflated based on the IGP-DI, calculated by FGV. The results showed that the prices of the Longa Vida tomatoes have a bilateral causality among the regions analyzed, that is, the prices in Fortaleza/CE cause the prices in Ibiapaba/CE and the prices in Ibiapaba/CE cause the prices in Fortaleza/CE. For the Cajá tomato, it was observed that the prices in Fortaleza/CE cause the prices in Ibiapaba/CE, but the prices in Ibiapaba/CE do not cause the prices in Fortaleza/CE.