Concentração de mercado da telefonia móvel no Brasil e análise contrafactual para o período de 2017: O caso da OI

Abstract

This study analyzed the level of concentration in the Mobile Telephone market in Brazil in 2017 segmented for prepaid and postpaid services. We used the annual data of access numbers of the largest mobile telephone companies established in Brazil according to the National Telecommunications Agency - ANATEL. To test the hypothesis of concentration in this market, three usual concentration measures were used in the economic literature, Market Share, Hirschman-Herfindalh Index (HHI) and Concentration Reason. Then, a counterfactual analysis was performed simulating the market in four hypotheses for both service segments: Without the presence of Oi, without the presence of the leader of each service, without the presence of Oi and the leader simultaneously and without the presence of the two largest companies in each segment simultaneously. The results of the mentioned economic indicators of concentration revealed that the market has high concentration for both services, prepaid and postpaid, so any change in the competitive scenario can increase the concentration. As a result of the counterfactual analysis, it is evident that first without the presence of Oi the market becomes more concentrated in both segments thus corroborating the main hypothesis of this work in which it is based on the request for judicial recovery of Oi and its possible bankruptcy. In this context, the other scenarios only reinforce the assumptions of increased concentration when any of the large companies that offer mobile telephony services are withdrawn