Resultados fiscais e eficiência da gestão pública estadual: uma análise por resultados em educação, saúde e segurança pública entre 2015 e 2019

Abstract

The study carried out an investigation into the relationship between fiscal performance and efficiency of public spending in terms of results in the area of health, education and public security, generated for the population of the 27 federative units in Brazil between 2015 and 2019. Efficient Frontier Estimation Models via the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology, it is possible to obtain a ranking of relative efficiency for the input-output ratio, where 03 fiscal indicators are considered as inputs and 03 social indicators as products: one for Health, another for Education and a last for Public Safety. The fiscal indicators are proxies of Investment, Savings and Payment Capacity measured by the STN and the result (outputs) are the Basic Education Development Index (IDEB), the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and the Violent Death Rate Intentions (MVI). The results show relative stability in the number of units whose efficiency indicator reached the maximum value - 4 federative units in 2015 and 3 in 2019 and allow us to infer that the states on the efficiency frontier (MG, PR, RJ, RR and RS), the with the exception of RR and RJ, were among those with the worst set of fiscal indicators analyzed. This trade-off between fiscal performance and social results alerts policymakers to define an optimal allocation of public resources that does not compromise the fiscal situation of the public sector, but that, at the same time, enables the provision of public goods and services at an adequate level, mainly in the social areas listed.