Análise de viabilidade econômica de empreendimento imobiliário considerando a incerteza da ocorrência dos fluxos de caixa futuros

Abstract

This paper had as a goal to develop a method to analyse the economic viability of the construction of residential buildings, considering in the calculus the uncertainty of the predicted cash flows in order to provide a useful result to the decision making of the investment. The civil construction industry is very important to the country's economy and residential buildings are a very attractive type of investment in the market. To launch a residential building it is required high investment, a reasonable period of time and the predictions of the positive values that come from the sales, as well as the negative values that come from the construction costs and other expenses are very likely not to happen as predicted. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a method that, besides calculating investment indicators based on future cash flows, really includes in the calculus the probability of nonoccurrence of these cash flows. The paper was based on a economic viability study developed by a construction firm, it was used the software VIABIL from the company BDK solutions, one of the most used softwares among big construction firms. A cash flow was predicted to a possible residential building and the investment indicators were calculated, different scenarios of selling prices and construction costs were analysed through a sensitivity analysis and, at last, it was possible to find a probability of occurrence of the desired result by the company, using the Monte-Carlo method of simulation, even though the technique could still be improved