Estudo da incerteza de janelas de atendimento em problemas de roteirização de veículos

Abstract

The Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Window is a Vehicle Routing Problem extension by adding time windows. Although extensively studied in the literature, the methods proposed for solving the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Window assume that the given time windows are correct. Then due to invalid time windows, unsuccessful deliveries may occur more frequently. The present work proposes strategies to optimize the chance of successful delivery. For this purpose, historical data of delivery attempts are used, provided by GreenMile company. Statistical methods for data in limited intervals and regression methods for binary response apply to these data. Delivery attempt hour is modeled in the approach for data in limited intervals. Another approach adopted is the use of the logistic regression model. In this approach, the goal is to use a set of explanatory variables to obtain the probability of achieving success, or failure, in a delivery attempt. As a result, it was getting a decision-making strategy on the optimal time interval to carry out delivery, considering the characteristics of the establishment served and the historical data of the deliveries made.