Efeitos da política de minidesvalorizações cambiais sobre as exportações agrícolas do Nordeste

Abstract

Despite the Commercial Balance of the Northeast region be, traditionaly, positive, its exports earnings are growing less than the ones of Brazil as a whole. This investigation studied the effects of the minidevaluation policy on the agricultural exports of the Northeast. An analysis was made concerning the evolution of the amount exported and price of the principal agricultural export products during the study period: sugar, cocoa, cashew nut and sisal. The impact caused by the exchange policy was verified by the use of a regression analysis. The results allowed us to conclude that the quantities of exported agricultural products by the Northeast region are growing satisfactory independently of the price flutuation on the international market. Although the official exchange rates don't represent the equilibrium devaluation on the exchange market, considering the income lost occured on the Commercial Balance and the gap acumulated on the exchange rate in relation to the inflation of the period, the over valuation of the cruzeiro did not influence negatively on the export earnings.