Evolução histórica (1975-2000) e prognóstico do desmatamento e das emissões de carbono no Estado do Acre, Amazônia, Brasil

Abstract

This study shows an intimate relationship between the continuous growth of agriculture and husbandry, its low productivity (production/area ratio) and the increasing deforestation rates to include new areas for production in the State of Acre between 1975 and 2000. In general, the increase in deforestation rates can be estimated based on the increase in production rates minus the increase in productivities of agriculture and husbandry activities. Important socio-economic changes in Acre in the period resulted in increasing population, GIP per capita and of the Human Development Index. During this period conversion of forest to agriculture and husbandry increased from 305,531 ha to 1,789,577 ha resulting in a gross Carbon emission to the atmosphere of 278*106t. The evolution of deforestation shown here, and the consequent Carbon emissions, varied according to the economy development and that husbandry is the major driver of deforestation, about 80% of the total. Annual deforestation rates will depend on the economy development and may vary from 10.000 ha.year-1 a 100.000 ha.year-1.