Transferência de modelos de previsão de acidentes entre cidades brasileiras

Abstract

Accident prediction models (APM) are expressions that relate the frequency of traffic accidents with road geomet-ric and operational attributes and deal with relative success, with the high degree of randomness related to this phenome-non. The development of these models requires considerable efforts to obtain data on quantity and quality suitable for mod-eling. The use of models developed in other jurisdictions may be a less costly alternative than the development of specific models for each location. The objective of this study is to evaluate the transferability of APM for signalized intersections between cities. Models previously developed for Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte were calibrated and validated for the estima-tion of accidents in the city of Porto Alegre. The results indicated that the use of APM between jurisdictionsis an alternative that should be used with caution, and it is desirable to invest efforts in developing specific models for each jurisdict