Estudo sobre modelos de infecção

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic showed that the world is not prepared to face a disease with such a spreading power, infection and lethality. In addition, factors such as difficulty in developing vaccines and treatments, fake news networks creating misinformation about the disease and economic crises were responsible for the worsening of the situation. The trend we are experiencing is of new pandemics resulting from human interactions with new microorganisms, therefore, epidemiology emerges as a fundamental field for its confrontation and, in particular, studies on propagation models. In this work, we explore the analytical and numerical solutions, through simulations, of the simplest models in order to see the basic behavior of the spread of a disease in a population. With an emphasis on the SIR model, we conducted simulations to verify the model’s functionality in reproducing the effects of problems and interventions in an epidemic. Finally, we were able to verify the model’s capacity to represent the propagation problem reliably and the possibility of being able to modify it to implement other situations capable of affecting the dynamics of a real epidemic.