Uma proposta de modelo de monitoramento do ISS para o Município de Caucaia

Abstract

In order to develop a monitoring model for the Municipal Service Tax (ISSQN) in a case study for Caucaia City, the work contributes to the construction of a tool to assist tax management. Through the monthly ISSQN collection data for the years 2015 to 2018, an indicator is developed, the Monitoring and Inspection Signaling Index (MISI), which will define an order of priority for the inspection of the Service Sector segments of the Caucaia economy. MISI signals for possible underpayments in the service sector through technical criteria capable of identifying payments below the expected historical standard. Additionally, a metric is developed to define a risk profile for the Service Sector segments of that city, according to the association or not of the collection of the segment with the economy. This metric is intended to define a stimulus policy. The results allow us to identify that the categories Services Related to Engineering, Architecture, Civil Construction and Similar, Industries and Banking Institutions lead the ranking of priorities to be monitored and inspected, according to MISI. The results also show that the Banking Institution, Collection, Distribution and Water Treatment sectors, as well as the Industries sector, are less vulnerable to adverse economic shocks. The Passenger Road Transport sector, on the other hand, lacks stimulus, since, once identified as cyclical, it is more subject to the adverse impacts of economic shocks and, consequently, to revenue losses in periods of crisis. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of recognizing the different risk profiles in the segments of the local Service Sector for the definition of countercyclical macro and microeconomic policies as a way of reducing exposure to risk and the vulnerability of local own collections, in addition to smoothing the impact of systemic economic crises.