Diagnóstico de mercado na aplicação do microcrédito urbano na Região Nordeste

Abstract

One of the government's greatest challenges is to establish policies that promote economic and social development, generating employment and income for the poorest. In contrast, with technological advances, there is a retraction in job creation. Given this scenario, oriented microcredit programs have been adopted as an alternative for productive insertion. As most Brazilian microentrepreneurs do not have access to the official credit system, and because they believe that entrepreneurship combined with the application of oriented microcredit can minimize social inequality, this study aims to identify eligible markets for the spread of urban microcredit, in the Northeast of Brazil , as well as to evaluate the relative importance of the credit component (microcredit) in municipal socioeconomic development. To this end, a microcredit performance indicator was developed, aiming to segment the northeastern municipalities, listing the benchmarks in the application of microcredit. Subsequently, through the probit method, an evaluation of the socioeconomic characteristics of these municipalities was carried out to find the propensity of the municipality to be benchmarking. Then, the method of matching the closest neighbor was used, determining the eligible market. According to the results obtained, it was found that municipalities with lower levels of GDP per capita and located in the non-urban region are more likely to be benchmarks, as well as found an eligible market predominant in the northeastern semiarid, strongly concentrated in the State of Bahia. Finally, the estimates, via quantile regression, indicate a positive effect of microcredit on growth and economic development, denoting the relative importance of the microcredit financing policy in the Northeast Region.