Desemprego severo no Brasil: uma análise da relação do Programa Bolsa Família no desemprego rural e urbano

Abstract

The Bolsa Família Program (PBF) emerged with the objective of alleviating poverty and extreme poverty in Brazil, given some conditionalities. Since its creation in 2003, the literature has sought to analyze the effects of Bolsa Família Program on the labor market. However, as of 2014 the unemployment rate increased considerably, due to the economic crisis. In this context, this study seeks to investigate the relationship between participation in the Bolsa Família Program and the occurrence of severe unemployment in rural and urban Brazil for the year 2017. For this purpose, data from the 2017 Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD 2017) and a binary response model, Probit, were used for data treatment. PNAD 2017 was chosen to work because it is the only one that contains in the questionnaire a specific question about the individual's participation or not in the Bolsa Família Program. The results show a higher probability of being in severe unemployment among beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program, while for individuals living in rural areas, the chances of severe unemployment occurring were lower. Still, the results obtained indicate a lower probability of being severely unemployed for male individuals, heads of families, younger people, individuals with less education, and in the South of the country. The probabilistic scenarios show that the individual who is least likely to be unemployed for more than one year is a non-beneficiary of the Bolsa Família Program, a resident of a rural area in the North or Northeast of the country, male, head of household, between 16 and 25 years old and without formal education, with only 17.87% of chances. On the other hand, the individual who is a beneficiary of the Bolsa Família Program, resident in the urban area of the North or Northeast region, woman, between 46 and 65 years old, with completed or ongoing higher education, and not head of householder, is more likely to have 61.37% chance.