Efeito da Substituição Tributária sobre a arrecadação do ICMS nos setores varejista e atacadista: um estudo de caso para o Decreto nº 29560/2008 no Ceará

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes the impact of tax replacement on ICMS tax revenue. Was evaluated the Decree nº 29.560/2008 of the State of Ceará, which established the tax replacement on a set of economic activities of the wholesale and retail sector. In order to capture the heterogeneity in the impact in different sizes of companies, the treatment analysis was disaggregated according to the regime of collection. The results indicate that the tax replacement program had a positive and significant effect on the tax revenues in the Normal Regime, which confirms the hypothesis of transferring to Normal companies the tax obligation to collect the contribution of the whole chain. On the other hand, the main analysis denoted a negative effect of the treatment on ICMS collection of Microenterprises. It is suggested that the tax substitution program had a positive effect on the collection of ICMS from the State of Ceará, corroborating the results observed in the literature.