Ciclos do produto e do desemprego: uma análise da lei de Okun para o Brasil

Abstract

The present paper analyzes the validity and regularity of Okun's law for the Brazilian economy between January 1990 and August 2012 considering three distinct periods: the economic environment before the Real Plan; the phase of execution of the Real Plan; and the period after the relaxation of the Inflation Rate Targeting; in order to better understand the empirical relation between the cycles of the Product, the Unemployment and the functioning of the Brazilian labor market in relation to its rigidity and/or flexibility. Okun's law has only presented solid statistical data for the complete sample and for the period after the relaxation of the Inflation Rate Targeting. The non-validity of this relation regarding the other periods can be a product of strong economic instability, profound transformations and structural reforms involving the pre- and post-Real Plan period. A comparative analysis of countries showed that the Brazilian labor market finds itself in an intermediate position between more flexible markets, like the US and Germany, and the stricter ones, like Japan and Italy.