Avaliação de imóveis por análise de regressão: um estudo de caso do impacto da construção do empreendimento Riomar Kennedy

Abstract

This work is based primarily on three main pillars: the Evaluation Engineering, the Real Estate Market and the Statistic. The Evaluation Engineering refers to the branch of engineering responsible for estimating the value of a property, whether it be an urban or rural property, machines and / or equipment or even enterprises of various natures. The scope of study objects makes it a broad science and with several fields of activity. As urban real estate is the focus of the analysis, it is also necessary to define Real Estate Market, which can be considered one of the most complex department of the economy, where the main difficulties are related to some special features of real estate, such as location and spatial correlation. Because of this difficulty, and seeking to decrease it, the valuation engineering has been developing over the years around statistical inference. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of the construction of the Riomar Kennedy enterprise in Fortaleza in estimating the value of the square meter of the properties of its surroundings. In this sense, two evaluations were carried out to achieve some specific goals. The first evaluation included data on land offers and transactions in the Presidente Kennedy neighborhood and neighboring neighborhoods from 2009 to 2017 and aimed to verify the behavior of the square meter value over the years, from before the construction of the mall, through the periods of speculation, reaching the present day. The second evaluation included data on housing and apartment offers in the Presidente Kennedy neighborhood in the year 2017 and sought to verify how the presence of a variable that reflects proximity to the income generating pole can influence the results of the linear regression models used in the work and evaluate which types of properties (houses or apartments) the influence of proximity to the pole is more relevant in the value of square meter. The evaluations were performed based on the Brazilian legislation, in particular on the rules of ABNT NBR 14.653, the Sales Comparison Approach and Multiple Linear Regression Models were used.