Ineficiência no setor público: uma análise dos efeitos macroeconômicos e de bem-estar

Abstract

The present study aims to analyze the effects of inefficiency of public spending and public investments on macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. For this purpose, we use a calibrated general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy and two scenarios were created that differ by the initial level of inefficiency adopted. From these scenarios, counterfactual simulations and politics simulations to reducing the inefficiency levels of the public sector were carried out. By hypothesis the policies are considered no cost. For one of the basic calibrated scenarios a counterfactual simulation in which inefficiency levels were reduced to zero would provide long-term results in which the product would grow by about 2,5% while welfare would grow by 9,5%, according to the measure of this study. However, one of the concerns of this research is proposition of feasible policies. Thus, in addition to the comparisons between stationary states performed in the counterfactual exercises policy simulations were carried out which at the most reduce the inefficiency levels by the half. The policy analysis considers the changes in the transition from one steady state to another. This fact that makes possible of short-term and medium-term analyzes. Although the product did not show long-term growth of more than 1,5%, the net welfare gain would reach 3,2 %. It was shown that all feasible policies proposed if implemented would obtain positive results both from the macroeconomic variables and welfare. Such results justify an implementation effort.