Análise dos veranicos e vulnerabilidade à produção de milho e feijão nos Inhamuns-CE

Abstract

This research sought to understand in greater detail the relationship of dependency between agriculture and weather. As we know agriculture is an economic activity extremely dependent on the weather rhythm worldwide and in Northeast Brazil (NEB) this Relationship dependency is even more intense, because the NEB is a region that present great variability intranual and intra-seasonal rainfall. Therefore, the present research sought to observe the intrasazonal behavior of rainfall in the rainy season from 2003 to 2013 and the impacts on the production of grains (maize and beans) in the Macroregion of the Serranos of the Inhamuns in Ceará. For that, daily data of 16 pluviometric stations belonging to the Inhamuns Macroregion were analyzed during the period from 2003 to 2013 and, from this analysis, the summers were identified and classified (consecutive days in which it does not rain or rain below 2 mm ) For each of the 16 municipalities in the region. Given the results of this study it was found that the region had a high variability of intra-seasonal rainfall expressed by a high incidence of drought stress (1,694 in all), distributed in 53% class A, 17.6% of class B and 29.1 % of class C. This high variability makes that agricultural production is highly vulnerable, because its good performance is conditioned to a good distribution of rains. Therefore the analysis of agricultural eleven years has identified a great year of production of the oscillation to year, where seven years were committed harvest and 4 were productive harvests a year of record harvest (2011). It was also found that drought stress A and C are related to the production, and the drought stress A the positive relationship and C negative relationship, where the drought stress C is more determinant of chop yields that drought stress A. Finally, it was shown that the tilth are highly dependent on rainfall, and the com crop more vulnerable to drought stress.