Decomposição da evolução dos salários rurais no Brasil (2012-2024)

Abstract

This dissertation proposes an analysis of the evolution of rural wages in Brazil between 2012 and 2024. The starting point for the research is the recognition that rural Brazil has undergone intense transformations in recent decades, with a growing share of non-agricultural activities, improvements in educational levels, and demographic changes, such as an aging population and increased female participation in the labor market. The central objective of the study is to decompose the evolution of rural wages, identifying the factors that contributed to changes in labor income in recent years. To this end, the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is used, complemented by unconditional quantile regressions (RIF-regressions), as proposed by Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2007, 2009). This approach allows us to assess the composition (differences in worker characteristics) and price (differences in the returns to these characteristics) effects across the wage distribution. The empirical analysis will be based on microdata from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua) for the period in question (2012-2024). The data used refer to workers living in rural areas, aged 18 to 65, employed in agricultural and non-agricultural activities. In the estimated earnings equations, the dependent variable is the logarithm of the real hourly wage, and the explanatory variables include demographic, educational, occupational, and regional characteristics. The results indicate advances in educational levels, rising average earnings, greater female participation, and growth in non-agricultural occupations. Regression estimates reveal persistent wage differentials by gender, race, education, type of occupation, and region. Furthermore, the decomposition reveals that part of the wage growth is associated with the improvement in the workforce profile, although structural inequalities persist, especially in the North and Northeast regions. This study's contribution to the literature consists of updating new evidence on the rural labor market, in addition to offering a detailed analysis of wage trends, highlighting regional inequalities and the determinants of rural remuneration, with implications for public policies aimed at rural development and reducing inequalities.