Estudo longitudinal sobre a relação entre o investimento em assistência estudantil nas universidades federais brasileiras e a taxa de sucesso na graduação

Abstract

This research examined the relationship between investment in student aid (SA) and the outcomes of dropout and student success reported by brazilian federal universities. To this end, the study sought to determine the degree of correlation, expressed through Pearson’s correlation coefficient (ρ), between the resources invested in SA and the Undergraduate Success Rate (TSG) indicator, over the period from 2010 to 2022. A broad and innovative interpretation of what constitutes “investment in student aid” was adopted, by considering as such the total amount classified under the expenditure sub-item “Student Financial Aid,” regardless of the budget action in which it was recorded, in addition to the amount executed under budget action 4002 (Aid to Higher Education Students), both sourced from the SIAFI (Federal Financial Administration System). This approach privileges the contribution of various policies and actions toward the objectives of SA, thus going beyond the financial dimension by encompassing the academic and social integration of students into the institution—an aspect widely emphasized in the literature on student dropout. In operationalizing the variables, the proposed method also innovates by aggregating data into multi-year periods, thereby aligning with the calculation method of the TSG (which considers the multi-year duration of degree programs) and accounting for the phenomenon of academic retention. The association between variables during the 2010–2022 period yielded a correlation coefficient of ρ = 0.504 (with a significance level of 0.01%, i.e., p < 0.001), while the 2011–2020 period presented the highest observed value (ρ = 0.539), results significantly higher than those reported in comparable studies. These findings support the assertion that up to 29% of the TSG may be associated with investment in SA. Furthermore, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that the observed values were independent of the geographic location and institutional size, thereby reinforcing the validity of the results and supporting the thesis that universities with higher perstudent investment in SA initiatives achieve better outcomes in terms of retention, dropout, and graduation rates. It is understood that the results achieved by this study are attributable to the meticulous treatment of financial data, the use of a more comprehensive dataset, and the methodological innovations introduced. It is hoped that this study will help to highlight the importance of investing in SA, support evidence-based decision-making in the allocation of resources — favoring SA — and contribute meaningfully to the broader discourse on the topic.