Efeitos da redução de ICMS no preço da gasolina e a competição entre postos de gasolina: uma análise para a Cidade de Fortaleza

Abstract

The price of fuel is a determining factor for modern society, given the necessity of this product for the economy of a location. The productive chain of this product ranges from extraction and refining to the fuel pumps at gas stations, thus, there are several factors that imply price changes. In Brazil, for many years, Petrobras maintained control over gasoline prices using the company for political purposes to artificially keep prices stable. However, in 2016, there was a change in management, and national prices began to follow the same logic as international pricing. Faced with a significant increase, the country experienced protests and strikes from the transportation sector. Following the price hike after the pandemic, the federal government proposed a tax measure to reduce the tax on gasoline sales. Given this scenario, this dissertation aims to investigate the dynamics of gasoline prices at gas stations in Fortaleza for the year 2022. This investigation includes a spatial analysis of gas stations to examine the role of competition in prices and structural break tests to capture changes in gasoline prices and their association with changes in legislation regarding gasoline prices. The results indicate an important role of density in price composition at gas stations. Of the two econometric models, the first indicated a strong spatial correlation between prices, while the second model showed a weaker spatial correlation.