Análise geoespacial dos determinantes das ocorrências dos homicídios nos bairros de Fortaleza, Ceará

Abstract

Regarding the growing literature on the topic of Violence and Crime, this work sought to contribute to the analysis and understanding of the spatial dynamics of homicides in the neighborhoods of the city of Fortaleza, Ceará. Techniques for estimating geospatial data were used: Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data (AEDE) and Models of Spatial Dependence (SEM, SAR, and SAC). The data provided were obtained through secondary sources: Municipal Information System on Mortality (SIM/SMS/PMF), from the Municipal Health Department of Fortaleza (SMS/PMF), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and Superintendence of Research and Public Security Strategy (SUPESP/SSPDS/CE). The research sample is composed of the socioeconomic indicators of the 113 hybrid neighborhoods of the capital Fortaleza and by the rates of the number of deaths by homicides, for the period from 2010 to 2022. Given the results presented, it was found that there was a process of spatial diffusion of homicide rates, in the city of Fortaleza. The existence of positive spatial dependence was observed, that is, areas with a high crime rate have neighbors, also, with high homicide rates. These two pieces of evidence suggest that the distribution of homicides in the capital of Ceará does not occur randomly in its geographic space.