O impacto do crédito rural no desenvolvimento da citricultura no estado de São Paulo

Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop a mathematical model adequate topermanent crops, and to analize an aplication to verify the influence of agricultural credit policy on citrus crop development in São Paulo during the decades of 70 and 80. The problem was analyzed by constructing a mathematical model of equilibrium between demand and supply in São Paulo orange market. Later on, the analysis was enriched by a dynamic simulation which related prices, supply, demand and new plantations during the period between 1970 and 1987. To specify the supply of orange a response model specific to permanent crops was constructed. In that model, the process of time adjustment was made explicit by new crops. To identify factors responsible for new crops in São Paulo, it was used a linear equation model envolving various dependent variables. The selected equation showed relationship between agricultural credit and ratio of lagged prices of orange and sugarcane at producers level. On the demand side, the behavior of brazilian orange industry was analysed. The results were very satisfactory in terms of function adjustment, suggesting efficiency of selected variables in explaining variation of intemal demand of the orange's industry. Through simulation process, one could realize that the policy of subsidized credit was an important factor for the development, and the initial strengthen of the sector, as the orange production showed a declining trend under altemative sceneries availability of subsidized agricultural credit was not considered. It is important to mention that without credit incentives provided by govemment, sector's dynamic was able to reproduce agricultural and industrial activities comparable to those existing in the late eighties, in terms of demand.