Desindustrialização no Brasil e impactos na balança comercial: Uma análise de 2000 a 2020

Abstract

The present monography aims to describe the deindustrialization process in Brazil and how this modifie the exports list of the country. In order to do so, a wide discussion about the concept of deindustrialization and how it happens was realized, examples of developed and underdeveloped countries that pass through the process were shown, and the world bank data basis was used to prove this phenomenon. Then, data from World Bank and IBGE were used to demonstrate the decrease of the industrial GDP and industrial employment in the total of the country, which means deindustrialization. Furthermore, a summary of the recent economic history was approached to explain partly how the deindustrialization process happened in Brazil. According to World Bank that the industrial GDP in 2004 was 15% of the total brazilian GDP and in 2020 this level decreased to 10% of the total GDP, the industrial employment also shows reduction according to IBGE, from 18% in 2002 to 14% in 2014 in PME series, and form 13% to 11% in the total according to PNAD series, between 2012 to 2020. Finally, data about elasticity income of primary exports, agricultural prices and data about how global heat affects the brazilian plantations were used to show how the country is going to amplify its comercial vulnerability caused by the premature deindustrialization.