Inflação e Covid-19: uma análise empírica do IPCA sobre as causas da inflação brasileira na pandemia

Abstract

Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic variables for a country, as the price levels of an economy will affect the production costs of companies and household consumption, in addition to influencing the decisions taken by the government and other economic agents, generating a chain of consequences for the economy as a whole. Brazil is a country that constantly goes through periods of inflationary acceleration, with the last occurring from 2020 onwards during the coronavirus pandemic, the main consequence being the loss of household purchasing power. This study will comprise the analysis of the IPCA between September 2016 and August 2022, as it encompasses the pandemic period and allows comparison with periods prior to the beginning of it. The general objective is to investigate the causes of Brazilian inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study consists of explanatory and descriptive research, of a quantitative nature. Data from the IPCA time series, its components, and other macroeconomic variables are used to perform the empirical analysis of the determinants of inflation in the period. The results showed that the main groups responsible for the increase in the IPCA are “Food and Beverages”, “Housing” and “Transport”. International factors, such as the exchange rate and the price of commodities, as well as the inertial component of the economy's indexation, are the main factors that influence the trajectory of prices. The results corroborate with the literature presented that the level of domestic prices is greatly affected by the external sector and the degree of indexation of the economy.