Seleção e avaliação econômica de nova tecnologia sob condições de risco: o caso da cana-de-açúcar

Abstract

This study aims at selecting, from the various technological alternatives applicable to different varieties of sugar cane, those which are less vulnerable to risk and offer the best economic perspective for the Cariri region of Ceara. The information used was obtained of the experiments realized by EPACE in the county of Barbalha, in the Cariri area, south of the state of Ceara. The technological alternatives were classified as following: A - Variety CO 419 treatment 1 (0-0-0); B - n " " 2 (40-45-30); C - " " " 3 (80-90-60); D - " " N 4 (120-135-90) E - " CB 45-3 " 1 (0-0-0); F - " “ " 2 (40-45-30); G - " e " 3 (80-90-60); H - n " " 4 (120-135-90); I - " CP 60-1 N 1 (0-0-0); J" " " 2 (40-45-30); K- " " " 3 (80-90-60); L - " " " 4 (120-135-90); M - " NA 56-79 " 1 (0-0-0); N- " n n 2 (40-45-50); O - " " " 3 (80-90-60); P - " " " 4 (120-135-90). The HANNOCH and LEVY method was used to select the prevalent technologies under risk conditions. Later on, the criteria of net value, present internal rate of return, cost benefit ratio and Fisher's rate of return were used, to determine the economic feasibility of each of the prevalent tecnologies. Through the use of the methods quoted above it was possible to establish that the technology "O" of variety. NA 56-79 offers greater protection against risk and large profit, among all the alternatives considered. Main conclusions were: - The HANNOCH & LEVY method is extremely appropriate to evaluate and select technologies under risk conditions. - The use of the HANNOCH & LEVY method made it possible to determine which was the most efficient technology for each, variety:B and D for variety CO 419, E for variety CB 45-3, L for variety CP 60-1 and N and O for variety NA 56-79, - The analysis of all the varieties and respective technologies considering profit/risk relation, pointed out a considerable superiority of technologies N and O of variety. NA 56-79. - The results of economic evaluation reaffirmed the superiority of these technologies. Technology O proved to be more profitable, in the intervalof 6 and 12% rate of interest. Main suggestions were: - In order to incorporate risk, research in agriculture should be done over a period of several years. - In the economic evaluation of experimental data, possible less of income when technology are transferd to larger areas should be taken into account. - The proposed methodology should be afterwards used in other research projects. - One should try to determine which technology offers maximum satisfaction to the rural producer and maximum industrial profit. - One should quantify the advantages that the Cariri region may have, in terms of development, if technology O is introduced in the area.