Efeito de enquadramento no modelo de grafos para resolução de conflitos com uma aplicação ao conflito dos viadutos do Cocó

Abstract

Wherever humans interact, there is conflict. Game Theory was the basis for the rising of methods for Conflict Modeling, a framework of tools to, through mathematical analysis, identify potential resolutions through stability analysis. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is one of these methods. Recent studies about the human behavior demonstrate that we make systematic errors in the decision-making process that lead to deviations from the expected results from the perspective of absolute rationality. In this work, we seek to understand how the incorporation of specific behavioral aspects can affect the equilibruim of conflicts and intends to propose an approach to the process of preferences elicitation and stability analysis that takes into account the limited human rationality. In particular, we analyzed the impact of the framing effect on the method of obtaining preferences by option prioritizing and proposed the structure of uncertain preferences as an alternative to deal with the incompatibilities of preferences obtained in different frames of a conflict. We proposed a matrix format of the SSEQ solution concept for preferences with uncertainty. To demonstrate the proposed new method, we modeled and analyzed a real conflict in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará. At the end of the study, we observed a significant change in the results of the stability analyses: in the traditional modeling, the conflict presented 114 Nash-stable states; and with the new approach it presented only 42 simultaneously stable states for the concepts Nasha, Nashb, Nashc, Nashd. In conclusion, we also highlight other situations where the new method can be useful, practical aspects of its applicability and possible future studies.