Breve análise da política econômica do Plano Real

Abstract

The strategy adopted by Brazilian government, on the first of July, to control inflation is presenting successful results. Real Plan reduced hyperinflation to a tax of less than 10% per year. The program occurred in three phases, each one connected to the others. The first one targets the fiscal equilibrium through the approval of the Social Emergency Fund, a fund composed by 15% of all tributes gained by the Federal Government . A posterior phase consists in a monetary reform, where the old currency was substituted to a new unit of account that would be, later, adopted as the new national currency, the Real. The last one is composed by an aggressive liberalization of foreign commerce, with a straight control of the foreign exchange rates, to remove supply side constraints and so inflationary pressures. Since the implementation of this three key blocks, the administration of the plan was reduced to orthodox control, high interest rates and control of credit. In despite of its initial success , this kind of policy fragilizes our economy. Public sector have seen his debt grow at high taxes, even bigger than 32% per year. Our external reserves increased, but the majority of this is composed by speculative capitals, the named smart or hot money, that are very unstable. At other hand the high interest rates constraint our GDP growth reflecting in high unemployment taxes and in decrease of the investment. Without correcting its fiscal deficit, by reordering its public sector, the costs of maintenance of the inflation in low levels, in terms of constraint of the growth and unemployment, are too high. In the long run, even the strategy tend to be uninsurable, so it's time -to reorder our priorities to don't face serious problems in the near future.